Afghan Taliban: Why do analysts have little hope of fruitful inter-Afghan talks?

Abdullah Abdullah, head of Afghanistan's National Reconciliation Council, has already said talks will be "difficult."



Since the start of inter-Afghan talks in Qatar on September 12, there have been no reports of significant progress towards peace in Afghanistan.

As no settlement has yet been reached between the negotiating teams, representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban, the actual phase of the peace talks has not even begun.

According to Afghan media, the reason for the lack of major progress is that the ideological differences between the parties over the terms and conditions of the peace talks have not yet been resolved.


It is expected that there will be further rounds of talks between the parties in which the modalities of the talks will be finalized, after which the parties will decide the main points or agenda of the talks.

What has happened so far?

After a long wait, when inter-Afghan talks began in the second week of September, the two sides appointed two representatives to work out the details of the actual round of peace talks.


But with the exception of minor developments, the delegates failed to finalize the modalities of the peace talks.

According to the Tolo News Agency, Mohammad Rasool Talib, a member of the Afghan government's negotiating team, said: "We have made progress on the terms and conditions of the talks, but one or two issues remain to be resolved."


One of the differences between the parties was that the Taliban wanted Hanafi jurisprudence to be the basis for peace talks (file photo).

According to Afghan media reports, the two sides have agreed on some of the 20-point agenda for the negotiation process.

In addition to agreeing to set up a joint secretariat and a committee of experts to discuss contentious issues, the two sides also agreed that if there were any obstacles to peace talks, according to the Afghan newspaper Informat-e-Roz. The conversation may be suspended.


Why the slowdown in progress?

The Tolo News Agency says there are three main reasons for the lack of rapid progress in the ongoing initial phase of preparations for inter-Afghan talks.

According to reports, the Taliban insisted that the war in Afghanistan be called "jihad", but it is possible that the two sides have recently agreed to call the current fighting in the country a major "problem".

Another contentious issue between the two is the Taliban's demand that peace talks should be based on Hanafi jurisprudence.

However, the Taliban's demand negates Articles 130 and 131 of the Afghan Constitution, which stipulate that private cases of the country's Shia community should be decided under Shia jurisprudence, while cases in which no clear Shari'ah guidance is available. Hanafi jurisprudence has been recognized as the general source of law.

There is still a long way to go before the negotiating teams can discuss the real issues


In light of this controversy, the daily Arman-e-Milli has said in an editorial that the Taliban's insistence on Hanafi jurisprudence is in fact a "weapon" aimed at fomenting "sectarian divisions in the country". ۔

In this regard, the Vice President of Afghanistan had said on September 21, "On behalf of Shiite Afghanistan, I urge the Taliban not to try to undermine the friendship and unity among the people of Afghanistan."

The third and final reason for the initial slowdown is the Taliban's demand that the agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban on February 21 be recognized as the basis for recent negotiations.

Perhaps the Taliban believe that inter-Afghan talks could be strained if the agreement between the United States and them is ignored.

Regardless of these obstacles to dialogue, the Afghan people are concerned about the ongoing violence in the country and call for a ceasefire.

But Taliban spokesman Muhammad Naeem said they would not agree to a ceasefire until some other issues were discussed.

What happens next?

Problems in the early stages suggest that the formal start of peace talks between the two sides will not be on time.


Abdullah Abdullah, head of Afghanistan's National Reconciliation Council, has already said talks will be "difficult".

In addition, many Afghan analysts have expressed frustration and have little hope that the talks will be fruitful.

"I think the negotiation process will be long and complicated," Tamim Asi, a former Afghan defense minister and a member of a think tank, told the Tolo News Agency a few days ago. Due to the complexities of the Afghan war, we cannot bring peace here overnight.

Before the negotiating teams can discuss the real issues, there is a need for consensus between the two on a number of issues, and consensus on these issues in the light of the Taliban-US agreement. These issues include not only the ceasefire but also the form of political administration in Afghanistan in the future.

Even if the two sides agree on a modalities for negotiations, only then will they be able to discuss the agenda for the actual round of peace talks, and this next step will also bring its share of complexities.